Fast Fiction

I read all these things (as you’ve seen) and it gets me to wondering. They always say we’re overdue for this or that.

Take a look at Parkfield. They’re supposed to be on a 22 year cycle for major earthquakes. And here we are, 16 years after the last expected quake and we’re still waiting. Of course a watched pot never boils. The more resources we throw at studying this exceptionally regular event, the less likely it will happen. Maybe that’s the cure ...

Take a look at Gorda and Juan de Fuca subduction zone. They are supposed to get a quake (part Native American lore and part geological evidence) every 300 to 600 years. It’s been more than 600 since it last ripped from the Mendocino coast to Vancouver - a huge quake that caused the coastal wetlands near the bays and inlets to either be pushed up or sink as much as three feet. This of course caused huge deadly tsunamis that were recorded in Japan at that time about 600 years ago. 

Then Russ shows a link to a story about the new rumblings under Yellowstone. We like to think of Yellowstone as geysers and mudpots, but it’s really an ancient and dormant volcano. Turns out that supervolcano is 40,000 years overdue for an eruption. And when it goes Ö that’s gonna be a huge one. We’re talking something that’ll take out most of the park and spew debris and ash into the atmosphere that may cause the equivalent of a nuclear winter for the Eastern US. And some other reports of a worst case scenario say it would destroy every living thing in a 600 mile radius.

My personal favorite story is of Cumbre Vieja in the Canary Islands. It’s a large volcano that has a large portion of its western mount that is particularly unstable and could break away and collapse into the ocean. Why should we care? Well, it’s a mountian, and the displacement of water in such a short period of time would create a super tsunami that would race across the Atlantic Ocean and swamp all coastal cities with a wave as high as 100 feet. A 100 foot wave would swamp the entire state of Florida, which doesn’t have much above sea level. Okay, maybe we’re not overdue for it, because I don’t think this particular thing has ever happened before, but it’s a huge thing anyway. If you’re really interested in sub-oceanic landslides and the accompanying landslides, here’s some good reading for those days when you’re not fatalistic enough.

I’m not sure why I bring these up. I suppose there are plenty of times we’re told that something will happen and it does. I suppose there are lots of other times when we’re told that they’ll happen and they don’t. Of course you can never say never because there’s always more future out there.